<paper_title>Global coal trade is resilient to maritime chokepoints
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摘要
Global coal trade is surprisingly resilient to disruptions at major maritime chokepoints. Using a source-sink cost-optimisation model over a global maritime network, the authors show feasible chokepoints rarely sever supply; rerouting and substitution among exporters and importers moderate costs and exporters’ revenues. In most chokepoint scenarios, import costs rise by as little as about 0.5 $/t, with costs in some Atlantic markets falling modestly. The notable exception is a severe restriction around the Taiwan Strait and South & East China Seas, which could lift China’s thermal coal costs by roughly 4.5 $/t and metallurgical coal costs by about 2.5 $/t, while reducing other regions’ costs by 5–10 $/t. Overall, maritime chokepoints create regional market segmentation but do not impose globally uniform cost effects or revenue outcomes. [page::0][page::1][page::10][page::11]
