Mapping the causal structure of price formation in Texas’s transitioning electricity market
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摘要
This study applies recent time-series causal discovery (LPCMCI) to ERCOT day-ahead prices (2019–2024), showing West Texas wind forecasts have become the dominant causal driver of the system-wide price (lambda), with effects on average ~3.4x larger than natural gas price effects; these causal relationships vary systematically by season, time-of-day and region, and the dominant gas benchmark shifts from Waha to Henry Hub over the study period [page::0][page::13][page::11].
