NULL-VALIDATED TOPOLOGICAL SIGNATURES OF FINANCIAL MARKET DYNAMICS
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摘要
We present a null-validated topological analysis of Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns, using the L1 norm of persistence landscapes from sliding-window delay embeddings as a dynamic geometry descriptor. The topological signal co-moves with stochastic volatility during stress periods, but the strength and temporal pattern of this association vary across markets. Surrogate-based null models (shuffle and phase-randomized) reject explanations based on marginal distributions or linear second-order dependence alone, indicating sensitivity to nonlinear and phase-dependent temporal organization beyond traditional volatility metrics. The results show that persistence landscape norms provide complementary information about market dynamics across regimes and markets [page::11][page::16][page::22]
