The Suicide Region: Option Games and the Race to Artificial General Intelligence
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摘要
This paper models the US–China AGI competition as a continuous-time preemption (option) game with an endogenous existential-ruin parameter D and shows that, because the expected catastrophe cost cancels across leader and follower payoffs, competitive pressures can create a “suicide region” where actors rationally deploy AGI early despite negative risk‑adjusted NPV; the paper derives threshold formulae, the saviour-premium effect under asymmetric beliefs, and policy levers (private liability, windfall sharing, verifiability) that can restore the option value of waiting [page::0][page::12][page::19].
