Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect
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摘要
We present a Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards survival analysis of 832,941 Solana pump.fun token launches with 24-hour graduation outcomes observed between 2026-05-08 and 2026-06-10, yielding a pooled graduation rate of 0.198% (Wilson 95% CI [0.189%, 0.208%]) [page::0][page::3]. We formalise the Graduation Regime Windows (GRW) framework and designate the 34-day REDPUMP-2026-v1 regime, releasing the underlying 860,213-launch dataset under CC-BY-4.0 on Zenodo with a frozen schema [page::0][page::1]. Social-presence features are highly predictive: the Telegram indicator alone producing an 8.94× lift (HR 5.40, 95% CI [4.73, 6.17], p = 6.6 × 10−138) and launches advertising all three social channels yielding a 17.4× lift versus none [page::1][page::6]. The top quartile (mcap > 31 SOL) graduates at 0.634%, nearly matching the Marino et al. (2026) pooled rate, suggesting the cross-regime decline is largely due to compositional shifts toward zero-self-buy launches rather than a decline in self-buy success rates [page::7][page::8]. We introduce the GRW framework and Pump.fun Graduation Index (PGI) as standardized anchors for future work, and provide reproducible code and data access details [page::11][page::12].
