Macroeconomic Risks from Maritime Trade Disruptions
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摘要
This paper develops a structural model of maritime chokepoint closures, showing that losses extend beyond the value of trade crossing a passage because disruptions to intermediate inputs propagate through global production networks [page::0]. Across countries, exposure is heavy-tailed, and the exporter end bears outsized direct losses relative to buyers due to concentrated commodity exports, while buyers face productivity losses via bundle penalties and network propagation [page::4]. Joint closures exhibit non-additive behavior: sub-additive losses for Middle East scenarios (shared detours) and super-additive losses for East Asia and Russia–Europe scenarios (distinct inputs starving common buyers), with the nonlinear CES cascade driving the latter while the former is dominated by direct severance and limited reallocation [page::5]. The analysis covers twelve chokepoints and three joint geopolitical scenarios, provides a four-channel decomposition (direct severance, network propagation, autonomous-output bundle penalty, intermediate-sales bundle penalty), and validates the model against historical disruptions and the 2023–24 Red Sea episode, highlighting tail risk and geographic concentration in the exposure distribution [page::0][page::4][page::5].
